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Poll: Haley leads in SC Gov race by 12

June 29, 2010 by gkeller | No Comments

State Representative Nikki Haley is now officially the Republican nominee for governor of South Carolina, and with the formal kickoff of the general election race, she holds a double-digit lead over Democrat Vincent Sheheen.

Nikki Haley

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in South Carolina shows Haley, the winner of a GOP Primary runoff last Tuesday, with 52% support. Sheheen, a state senator, earns 40% of the vote. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are still undecided.

Earlier this month and prior to the runoff, Haley posted a 55% to 34% lead over Sheheen, running much stronger against the Democrat than her primary runoff opponent, Congressman Gresham Barrett.

Haley fell just short of 50% in the June 8 GOP Primary, which forced a June 22 runoff between her and Barrett, the next closest vote getter. Haley defeated Barrett with 65% of the vote in the runoff.

Republicans appear to have quickly recovered from the divisive primary, with Haley now earning 85% of the vote in her own party. Sheheen, who won his party’s primary on June 8, gets identical support from Democrats. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer the GOP candidate by 19 points.

Despite current Republican Governor Mark Sanford’s well-publicized extramarital affair, Haley, who was the underdog in the GOP race prior to her endorsement by Sarah Palin, is the favorite in the race in a state that trends Republican and conservative.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in South Carolina was conducted on June 23, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

While South Carolina Democrats fret over how an unemployed political unknown with a felony charge hanging over him won their party’s Senate nomination, the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of that general election contest finds incumbent Republican Senator Jim DeMint leading Democrat Alvin Greene 58% to 21%.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of South Carolina voters consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement, compared to 16% nationally. Fifty-six percent (56%) say they are not members, but another 17% aren’t sure.

Ninety percent (90%) of Tea Party voters favor Haley, as do 60% of those who are not sure. Sheheen captures 60% of the vote from those who are not members.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of the state’s voters say the Tea Party movement is good for the country, again higher than voter sentiments nationally, while 30% see it as a bad thing.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) favor repeal of the national health care bill, slightly above the national average, while 37% oppose repeal. This includes 48% who Strongly Favor repeal and 24% who are Strongly Opposed.

Haley earns 81% support from those who Strongly Favor repeal. Sheheen gets 70% of those who are Strongly Opposed.

Twenty-two percent (22%) of South Carolina voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Sheheen, while 13% view him Very Unfavorably. Fifteen percent (15%) don’t know enough about him to venture any kind of opinion.

Haley is viewed Very favorably by 34% and Very Unfavorably by 11%. Just five percent (5%) offer no opinion of the Republican.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Just 19% say South Carolina politicians are more corrupt than politicians in other states despite the Sanford matter, the Greene primary win and the unsubstantiated allegations of marital infidelity that have been made against Haley. Sixteen percent (16%) say politicians in the state are less corrupt than their peers, and 59% say the level of corruption is about the same.

Forty-four percent (44%) approve of the job Sanford is doing as governor. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

As for President Obama, 42% approve of his job performance, while 57% disapprove. This is higher disapproval than the president earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of South Carolina voters think the president has done a good or excellent job in response to the huge oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. Fifty percent (50%) rate his performance as poor. This is similar to findings nationally.

Only 20% say the oil companies responsible for the leak – BP and Transocean – have done a good or excellent job in response, while 47% think they’ve done a poor job.

Seventeen percent (17%) of voters in South Carolina, the first state to secede from the Union prior to the outbreak of the Civil War, think individual states have the right to leave the United States and form an independent country. Sixty-seven percent (67%) disagree. This is comparable to views nationally.

Also in line with national voter sentiments, 33% of South Carolina voters say it is at least somewhat likely that some states will try to leave the United States in the next 25 years, but that includes only 11% who say it’s Very Likely.

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