By: Michael Barone

Actually, “leads” is the wrong word: PPP, a Democratic polling firm, reports that Republican Scott Brown is favored by 48% of likely Massachusetts voters and Democrat Martha Coakley by 47%–a statistical tie, given the margin of error. Still, this is big, big news. It looks like Brown could actually win the January 19 special election and provide, as he has promised to do, the 41st and decisive vote against the Democrats’ health care bill. Only last week pollster Scott Rasmussen, accused by liberal bloggers of giving Republican-leaning results, showed Coakley leading 50%-41% among likely voters. PPP confirms Rasmussen’s finding that Republicans are much more interested and motivated to vote than Democrats, as was the case in the November 2009 New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races. In addition, likely voters oppose the Obama health care plan by a 47%-41% margin and give Obama a tepid 44%-43% job approval. In a state (technically, a commonwealth) which Obama carried 62%-36% in November 2008.

PPP shows Brown with very high favorables (57%-25%), while Coakley has only lukewarm favorable (50%-42%). I’m not surprised. Brown in his ads and media appearances comes across as likeable, independent and knowledgeable and as a person of convictions. Coakley has been avoiding the campaign trail and two-candidate debates (she insists on a libertarian splinter candidate participating), and she tends to avoid giving firm answers on anything. She’s scheduled to come down to Washington next week for a lobbyist-infested fundraiser—not a good move given the anti-lobbyist feeling that’s so evident this year (and which Obama played on during the 2008 campaign). Coakley reminds me of the old cold fish aunt who purses her lips and disapproves of everything every other family member does. You definitely did not want to sit next to her at Thanksgiving dinner.

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